Foreign Aids, Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Output in Nigeria
The paper examined the effect of foreign aid and exchange rate volatility on agricultural output in Nigeria 1986-2022. The study used secondary data and employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasity for data estimation. The result from the GARCH showed that trade openness and domestic loan to agriculture had a direct and considerable impact on agricultural output increase at a significant level of 5%. This therefore, implies that 1% increase in trade openness and domestic loan to agriculture bring about 42.9% and 0.7% increase in agricultural output growth respectively. Also, foreign aid to agriculture and exchange rate were non-significant at 5% significant level with each having a direct and inverse relationship on agricultural output growth. Furthermore, The ARCH and GARCH results confirmed a favorable and insignificant impact on agricultural output growth, indicating that the model's selected variables do not exhibit volatility clustering. The study recommends that Nigeria government must ensure that there is more inflow of foreign aids into agricultural sector through declaration of state of emergency in the sector. Keywords: Agricultural output growth, Foreign aids, exchange rate, trade openness.